With three weeks until its release, the Ryan Reynolds, R-rated superhero comedy Deadpool 2 is currently tracking towards a $150 million weekend.
This projection is well ahead of the original film’s 2016 opening weekend box office take of #132.4 million.
The original wound up taking in a total of $783 million worldwide and if the sequel follows a similar path, it could gross somewhere in the neighborhood of $900 million. The first film is the top-grossing R-rated film of all time, not adjusting for inflation.
However, there are a few impediments to Deadpool 2 having a similar success. First off, the film will be coming out just three weeks after Marvel’s The Avengers: Infinity War. That film is projecting to do nearly half-a-billion dollars worldwide on just its opening weekend and will very likely have some strong longevity at the box office over the next several weeks right through Deadpool’s opening weekend. The weekend following Deadpool 2’s debut sees Solo: A Star Wars Story hitting theaters. Although there had been much behind-the-scenes turmoil on the production of that film, it now seems that interest is starting to build for the Star Wars spinoff. In comparison, the first Deadpool film was released in February where it had little direct competition at the box office for several weeks.
One other, less quantifiable factor, is the impact of original Deadpool director Tim Miller not returning will have on the film. Deadpools 2 is being directed by David Leitch. It remains to be seen if he can replicate the magic of the first film.
