If We Picked The OSCARS: 2015 Edition!

It’s that time of the year again, Oscar time! The question everyone is asking (at least in my household) is this – who will go home with the gold and what other surprises will ensue.

In this post, we go through the major categories, pick who we think will will, and who has the best chance for an upset. This way, all of our bases are covered (unless, of course, we are wrong). We’ll even give you our odds for an upset. So, here we go!

Best animated feature film of the year

• Big Hero 6 Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli
• The Boxtrolls Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight
• How to Train Your Dragon 2 Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold
• Song of the Sea Tomm Moore and Paul Young
• The Tale of the Princess Kaguya Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura

And the Oscar Goes to: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Unless it goes to: The Boxtrolls

Chance of Upset: 5%

It looks like it is HTTYD2’s year to get an award, but it will be a hallow victory because the best animated film of the year, The Lego Movie, did not even get nominated. Out of the rest, The Box Trolls might have a slim chance to get an award. Although, I think eventually one of the foreign films the Academy nominates in this category will end up winning it.

Best Original Song

• “Everything Is Awesome” from The Lego Movie
  Music and Lyric by Shawn Patterson
• “Glory” from Selma
  Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn
• “Grateful” from Beyond the Lights
  Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
• “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me
  Music and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond
• “Lost Stars” from Begin Again
  Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois

And the Oscar Goes to: “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me

Unless it goes to: “Everything Is Awesome” from The Lego Movie

Chance of Upset: 35%

I know many of you can’t see “Everything is Awesome” losing this category. However, it is going up against the last song Glen Campbell might ever write. The legendary singer songwriter is in the final stages of Alzheimers, and the song a final love note to his family. The song will be sung by Tim McGraw, as Campbell is in a medical facility, and McGraw’s rehearsals have brought tears to the people gathered. I think sentiment will rule the day.

Adapted screenplay

• American Sniper  Written by Jason Hall
• The Imitation Game Written by Graham Moore
• Inherent Vice Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
• The Theory of Everything Screenplay by Anthony McCarten
• Whiplash Written by Damien Chazelle

And the Oscar Goes to: The Imitation Game

Unless it goes to: Inherent Vice

Chance of Upset: 7.5%

The Imitation Game is the odds on favorite in a lot of places, but Anderson should get it just for adapting Pynchon, so I think he has the best chance for an upset.

Original screenplay

• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo
• Boyhood Written by Richard Linklater
• Foxcatcher Written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
• The Grand Budapest Hotel  Screenplay by Wes Anderson; Story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness
• Nightcrawler Written by Dan Gilroy

And the Oscar Goes to: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Unless it goes to: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Chance of Upset: 40%

This is a tough category, where all scripts have a shot. This year, it will be the battle of the consolation prizes, with The Grand Budapest Hotel having a slight edge over Birdman.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

• Patricia Arquette in Boyhood
• Laura Dern in Wild
• Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game
• Emma Stone in Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Meryl Streep in Into the Woods

And the Oscar Goes to: Patricia Arquette

Unless it goes to: Emma Stone

Chance of Upset: 2%

Arquette has been winning every other major award this season, I don’t see the possibility of that stopping here. I doubt that any of the other ladies have much of a chance, but if one of them do, it will be Emma Stone. She had the meatiest part of those left and she is well liked.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

• Robert Duvall in The Judge
• Ethan Hawke in Boyhood
• Edward Norton in Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher
• J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

And the Oscar Goes to: J.K. Simmons

Unless it goes to: Robert Duvall

Chance of Upset: 1%

Simmons has had an even better awards season than Arquette. He should be a dead solid lock to take home some hardware. But for my upset pick, I’m not going with Norton, who won the most award next to Simmons this year, but rather Duvall. Not that his performance was anything else than his normal excellent performance, but he is 85. And while he does have an Oscar, he was great in a lot of roles that deserved awards but didn’t even get nominated. This might be a miake-up/career achievement twofer.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Best Actress in a Leading Role

• Marion Cotillard in Two Days, One Night
• Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything
• Julianne Moore in Still Alice
• Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl
• Reese Witherspoon in Wild

And the Oscar Goes to: Julianne Moore

Unless it goes to: Rosamund Pike

Chance of Upset: 1%

Moore played a tricky role superbly. That role was of a woman battling early on-set Alzheimer’s, and the Academy like people battling with illness or disabilities. And she has a long history of great performances with no award as of yet. However, Rosamund Pike has also done well this season. Although, Pike has more awards outside of the Oscars, I believe that she will place a distant second to Moore here.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

• Steve Carell in Foxcatcher
• Bradley Cooper in American Sniper
• Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game
• Michael Keaton in Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything

And the Oscar Goes to: Michael Keaton

Unless it goes to: Eddie Redmayne

Chance of Upset: 5%

It’s the battle of the career resurgence vs. the actor playing a true-life illness story. This should be Keaton’s to lose, and I sincerely hope he gets it. But Stephen Hawking is a role that the Academy like to give awards to. Still, I don’t think that will be enough to overcome Keaton’s momentum.

Achievement in directing

• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) Alejandro G. Iñárritu
• Boyhood Richard Linklater
• Foxcatcher Bennett Miller
• The Grand Budapest Hotel Wes Anderson
• The Imitation Game Morten Tyldum

And the Oscar Goes to: Richard Linklater

Unless it goes to: Alejandro G. Iñárritu

Chance of Upset: 43%

A lot of people are favoring Iñárritu for his inventive work on Birdman. And I would agree that he deserves it.But it seems like the Academy, like everyone else, has become enamored with Linklater’s patience in directing Boyhood. I think this is the best chance for an upset this year, but it’s still a longshot for Iñárritu.

Best Picture

• American Sniper Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan, Producers
• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole, Producers
• Boyhood Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers
• The Grand Budapest Hotel Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers
• The Imitation Game Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers
• Selma Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers
• The Theory of Everything  Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers
• Whiplash  Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers

And the Oscar Goes to: Boyhood

Unless it goes to: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Chance of Upset: 7%

I think that it is Boyhood all the way. The only question is: which film has the best chance to be an upset? I pick The Grand Budapest Hotel over Birdman. I think the Academy like the former a lot more than the latter,and it will win if Boyhood falters.

Follow me (@gates71) and FilmBuffOnline (@FilmBuffOnLine) tonight for live commentary during the ceremony. Get our apologies for being wrong live as they happen!