It’s that time of the year again, Oscar time! The question everyone is asking (at least in my household) is this – in a year with so many perceived dead solid locks, could their be any surprising upsets? Well, of course there could! That’s what makes the Oscars the Oscars!
In this post, we go through the major categories, pick who we think will will, and who has the best chance for an upset. This way, all of our bases are covered (unless, of course, we are wrong). We’ll even give you our odds for an upset. So, here we go!
Best animated feature film of the year
- “A Cat in Paris” Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
- “Chico & Rita” Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
- “Kung Fu Panda 2” Jennifer Yuh Nelson
- “Puss in Boots” Chris Miller
- “Rango” Gore Verbinski
And the Oscar Goes to: Rango.
Unless it goes to: Chico & Rita or A Cat in Paris.
Chance of Upset: 19%
It is a bit shocking that there isn’t a Pixar film on the list, but this should mean that Rango will have an easy time getting the win. Although, the two foreign entries might not be on the list to show that the Academy recognizes their efforts. They have a shot at the award too.
Adapted screenplay
- The Descendants, Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
- Hugo, Screenplay by John Logan
- The Ides of March, Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
- Moneyball, Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. Story by Stan Chervin
- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Screenplay by Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan
And the Oscar Goes to: The Descendants.
Unless it goes to: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.
Chance of Upset: 48%
It’s a tough crowd—all are deserving— but I think The Descendents will win this as a consolation for losing Best Picture. Although, Tinker Tailor might be the best script and has sentimentality on its side (O’Connor is deceased). If there is an upset, I hope it’s that.
Original screenplay
- The Artist, Written by Michel Hazanavicius
- Bridesmaids, Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
- Margin Call, Written by J.C. Chandor
- Midnight in Paris, Written by Woody Allen
- A Separation, Written by Asghar Farhadi
And the Oscar Goes to: The Artist.
Unless it goes to: Bridesmaids.
Chance of Upset: 5%
The Artist should have it won hands down. Bridesmaids would be a humongous upset, but I think it is the next likeliest winner.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
- Bérénice Bejo in “The Artist”
- Jessica Chastain in “The Help”
- Melissa McCarthy in “Bridesmaids”
- Janet McTeer in “Albert Nobbs”
- Octavia Spencer in “The Help”
And the Oscar Goes to: Octavia Spencer
Unless it goes to: Melissa McCarthy
Chance of Upset: 3%
Melissa McCarthy is a Hollywood favorite, but Spencer has won this award a lot. She’s pretty much a lock for it, barring an upset.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
- Kenneth Branagh in “My Week with Marilyn”
- Jonah Hill in “Moneyball”
- Nick Nolte in “Warrior”
- Christopher Plummer in “Beginners”
- Max von Sydow in “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
And the Oscar Goes to: Christopher Plummer
Unless it goes to: Max von Sydow
Chance of Upset: 1%
Yeah, if there is an absolute mortal lock here, it’s Plummer. If he doesn’t get the award, there is something seriously wrong. But if I had to pick any underdog, and I have to, my gut tells me von Sydow has the best chance. He has the “this will be a lifetime achievement “ card he can play (but so does Plummer) but he is the most out of place nominee (no other major nominations, let alone wins) that something in the back of my mind says he’s been nominated for a reason.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
- Glenn Close in “Albert Nobbs”
- Viola Davis in “The Help”
- Rooney Mara in “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
- Meryl Streep in “The Iron Lady”
- Michelle Williams in “My Week with Marilyn”
And the Oscar Goes to: Viola Davis
Unless it goes to: Meryl Streep
Chance of Upset: 41%
Davis most likely will get it, but Streep keeps hanging around. She could pull off an upset.
Performance by an actor in a leading role
- Demián Bichir in “A Better Life”
- George Clooney in “The Descendants”
- Jean Dujardin in “The Artist”
- Gary Oldman in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
- Brad Pitt in “Moneyball”
And the Oscar Goes to: Jean Dujardin
Unless it goes to: George Clooney
Chance of Upset: 78%
Personally, I think Oldman should win it, but the way things are, he is lucky Hollywood paid enough attention to nominate him. It should come down to Dujardin and Clooney. I think the former is far more deserving—I couldn’t imagine anyone else playing his part, while I could see Clooney’s part played by other actors with little ill effect. But Hollywood loves Clooney. So he has a really good chance of winning,
Achievement in directing
- The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius
- The Descendants, Alexander Payne
- Hugo, Martin Scorsese
- Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen
- The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick
And the Oscar Goes to: Michel Hazanavicius
Unless it goes to: Martin Scorsese
Chance of Upset: 36%
The Artist was the best directed film and I believe it will win big on Oscar night. However, Hugo was a stretch for Scorsese and a form of commentary. I can see him having a chance of upsetting the field.
Best Picture
- The Artist, Thomas Langmann, Producer
- The Descendants, Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers
- Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Scott Rudin, Producer
- The Help, Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
- Hugo, Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
- Midnight in Paris, Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
- Moneyball, Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
- The Tree of Life, Nominees to be determined
- War Horse, Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
And the Oscar Goes to: The Artist
Unless it goes to: The Descendants
Chance of Upset: 51%
The Artist was, in my opinion, the Best Picture of the Year. But I can see a minor backlash against it for what could be perceived as its “gimmicks.” If that backlash is big enough, it could send the statue to The Descendants.
